Executive Summary
May 2026 close · CFO view- The inflection is real. May was the most profitable month on record — revenue $2.73M (+22.8% YoY), EBITDA $234.6K (8.8%) — and LTM EBITDA has improved $1.49M year-over-year to −$207K. On current pace the LTM turns positive around Q3-2026.
- Three engines, three stories. The Anaheim taproom remains the profit engine ($5.0M LTM OP, but +0.9% revenue and −2.6 pts margin — maturing). Wholesale swung from −$1.68M to +$20K LTM OP on the self-distribution wind-down. ONT scaled +36% with T4, but at ~15% incremental margins vs T2's 25–30%.
- Liquidity is the binding constraint, not profitability. Cash $755K (~10 days), AR at a record $1.56M (DSO 53 days vs 28 PY), vendors stretched to 75 days, and the $10.73M owner note matures 12/31/26 with only $339K of discretionary headroom. Ex-financing, the business consumed ≈$1.15M of cash over the LTM.
- Mind earnings quality. May net income ($365.7K) includes a $188K insurance recovery and a $10K depreciation month; growth is mix-dilutive (blended $/BBL −14% YoY) — scale efficiencies, not price, must carry the margin from here.
- This month's priorities: ① collections review on the May AR spike, ② T4 ramp reforecast + per-terminal P&L, ③ reconcile the capacity capex ask ($3.975M vs $1.3M bottleneck plan) before the board cycle.
Consolidated
Brewery X, LLC — all segmentsGross revenue & gross margin — trailing 12 months
Bars = gross revenue $K, line = gross margin % of net revenue.
EBITDA & net income — trailing 12 months
$K. EBITDA positive in 6 of the last 12 months, all in Jun–Aug 2025 and Mar–May 2026 — the seasonal shoulders remain the challenge.
Period comparison
Month · YTD (Jan–May) · LTM (Jun–May). Δ shown in % where meaningful, points for margins, absolute $ where the prior period is negative.
| Metric | May-26 | May-25 | Δ | YTD-26 | YTD-25 | Δ | LTM-26 | LTM-25 | Δ |
|---|
FP&A commentary consolidated
- Growth is volume-led and mix-dilutive: LTM volume +34% vs LTM revenue +8.7%; May blended $/BBL of $658 vs $764 PY (−14%). Margin math now depends on scale efficiencies, not price.
- Fixed charges set the profitability bar: ~$44K/month interest + ~$41K/month depreciation ≈ $1.0M/year below EBITDA; only Mar and May 2026 cleared it. Sustained net income needs ~$85K+/month of EBITDA.
- Corporate SG&A is holding but slipping at the edges: LTM $5.87M, +5.8% vs prior LTM — payroll +14% and utilities +52% against insurance/professional-fee savings.
Wholesale
3rd-party distribution + self-distro + contract brewing + licensingRevenue & operating profit — trailing 12 months
Bars = revenue $K, line = fully burdened operating profit $K (incl. self-distribution costs).
Unit economics — trailing 12 months
$/BBL. Revenue per BBL is drifting down on club/chain mix, but self-distribution cost per BBL has fallen faster — that gap is the entire wholesale turnaround.
Period comparison
| Metric | May-26 | May-25 | Δ | YTD-26 | YTD-25 | Δ | LTM-26 | LTM-25 | Δ |
|---|
FP&A commentary wholesale
- A structural swing, not a hot month: LTM operating result improved from −$1.68M to +$20K on the self-distribution wind-down — LTM self-dist costs fell 41% while LTM volume grew 37%. Still fragile: 6 of the last 12 months were OP-negative.
- Watch the price floor: revenue/BBL has declined five straight quarters ($375 peak Apr-25 → $265 May-26). Holding ~7% OP at scale requires production-cost leverage or price discipline on new chain placements.
- Contract brewing is a swing factor: $30–139K/month, $50K in May (−61% YoY); tracking archived Dec-25 with unreconciled batches — needs a keep/kill decision.
Taproom — Anaheim
Alcohol · Food · Merch (+ events)Revenue mix & operating margin — trailing 12 months
Stacked bars = alcohol / food / merch $K, line = operating margin %.
Food profitability — trailing 12 months
Food operating profit $K (bars) and food OP margin % (line). The most volatile margin in the company: 2.8% → 28.3% within the window.
Period comparison
| Metric | May-26 | May-25 | Δ | YTD-26 | YTD-25 | Δ | LTM-26 | LTM-25 | Δ |
|---|
FP&A commentary taproom
- The profit engine, but a maturing one: $5.0M LTM operating profit funds the rest of the company; LTM revenue +0.9% and margin −2.6 pts YoY — spring-2026 records are seasonal strength plus food, not a new baseline.
- Growth is food- and price-led: alcohol volume flat YoY while food sets records. Food runs 16.7% LTM margin — every point of mix shift toward food dilutes ~60% alcohol margins.
- Cost watch: security $322K LTM (+79% vs FY24) now sits on this P&L; food ingredients/supplies inflation is the main margin leak. Labor is well controlled at ~19–25% of revenue.
Ontario Airport (ONT)
Terminals 2 + 4 · Brewery X ONT LLCRevenue (bev / food) & operating margin — trailing 12 months
The T4 step-change lands in Mar-26 (+80% MoM). Margin diluted from the 2025 range (20–30%) to 18–19% as labor scaled ahead of sales.
Period comparison
| Metric | May-26 | May-25 | Δ | YTD-26 | YTD-25 | Δ | LTM-26 | LTM-25 | Δ |
|---|
FP&A commentary ontario
- T4 changed the scale, not yet the economics: revenue stepped from ~$317K to ~$533K/month, but incremental margin on T4 revenue is running ~15% vs T2's demonstrated 25–30%. Labor ($200–224K/month vs $105–120K pre-T4) is the dilution — staffing productivity is the lever while traffic builds.
- Beverage margin flag: May beverage COGS ran 15.4% of net beverage revenue vs 9.4% LTM average — verify T4 stocking/timing before it becomes trend.
- Reporting gap: the FS workbook has no true T2/T4 split (legacy "T2" labels carry combined totals). Per-terminal P&Ls are needed to track T4 payback.
Balance Sheet
13-month view · May 2025 – May 2026Liquidity
Cash $K by month. The Dec-25 trough ($569K ≈ 7 days of revenue) forced the Jan-26 owner-loan draw.
Working capital components
$K. AR (amber) is breaking out while inventory holds flat and AP stays stretched.
Cash conversion cycle
Days (workbook basis: DSO on LTM wholesale sales; DIO/DPO on LTM COGS). DPO consistently > 60 days — vendors are financing operations.
Balance sheet summary
| Line | May-26 | Apr-26 | May-25 | Δ YoY |
|---|
FP&A commentary balance sheet
- The AR spike deserves same-week attention: $1.56M is the highest AR in the workbook's history; DSO 53 days vs 28 PY. Determine whether it is club/chain payment terms (structural — plan for it) or collections slippage (actionable now). Straub is ~81% of receivables exposure.
- Vendor stretch is the shadow credit line: DPO 63–91 days all year; the Jan-26 owner draw went nearly dollar-for-dollar to AP paydown (−$698K). Book equity −$5.05M with the note maturing 12/31/26 — outside-party narratives depend on documented owner support.
- Reinvestment is minimal: net fixed assets fell $346K over 13 months — depreciation is outpacing capex while cash is tight; relevant context for the pending capacity request.
Cash Flow
Derived analysis · Jun 2025 – May 2026Method note: the monthly package contains no statement of cash flows, so this analysis is derived from the 13-month balance sheet plus the P&L (indirect method) — directionally exact, line-item approximate. This is the standing approach for this section.
Monthly change in cash
$K. Jan-26 includes the +$797K owner-loan draw; excluding it, Jan-26 ≈ −$644K.
LTM cash bridge (May-25 → May-26)
Cash fell $392K despite $761K of owner funding — the business consumed ≈$1.15M over the LTM (≈$96K/month). Biggest uses: AR build (−$798K), interest (≈−$520K); biggest offsets: AP stretch (+$508K) and improving EBITDA. Feb–May 2026 ex-financing was roughly cash-neutral — the inflection is reaching the cash line.
Monthly cash walk — drivers
| Month | Δ Cash | Primary drivers (balance-sheet basis) |
|---|---|---|
| Jun-25 | −$35.3K | AR +$200K build, offset by AP +$254K stretch |
| Jul-25 | −$25.9K | AR +$83K; inventory −$58K |
| Aug-25 | −$26.3K | AR −$213K collected, but AP −$140K paid and inventory +$91K |
| Sep-25 | +$45.5K | Funded by AP +$450K stretch (loss month) |
| Oct-25 | −$118.7K | Inventory +$73K; AP −$104K paydown |
| Nov-25 | −$102.1K | Loss-driven (−$328K NI); AP +$216K couldn't cover |
| Dec-25 | −$315.0K | Worst month — loss-driven; cash hit $569K trough |
| Jan-26 | +$153.2K | Owner loan +$796.7K draw; AP −$698.5K paydown |
| Feb-26 | +$52.6K | AP +$493K re-stretch vs AR +$151K, inventory +$96K |
| Mar-26 | +$125.3K | Strong P&L absorbed AR +$301K build |
| Apr-26 | −$201.2K | AP −$112K; keg-failure month; AR −$102K collected |
| May-26 | +$55.7K | Record earnings mostly absorbed by AR +$456K build |
FP&A commentary cash flow
- Working capital now sets the pace: at 53 days DSO, each incremental $1M of wholesale revenue ties up ~$145K of cash. Growth without collections discipline keeps cash pinned even as EBITDA turns.
- Two structural fixes to propose: (1) distributor payment-terms negotiation (Straub first), and (2) a 13-week rolling cash forecast in the weekly rhythm — at 7–14 days of cash on hand, monthly visibility is not enough.
- Owner dependence is the pattern to break: Dec-25 trough → Jan-26 draw. Only $339K of headroom remains on the note ($10.73M vs $11.07M cap), and draws are at the holders' discretion.
Watch List
standing risks — reviewed weeklySource: FS – May 2026.xlsx (monthly P&L history Jan-2024→May-2026; 13-month balance sheet), monthly recaps. All series extracted and tied to the published May-2026 package; LTM/YTD comparisons computed from monthly source data (LTM = Jun–May; prior LTM = Jun-24–May-25). Dollar charts in $K. Cash-flow section is derived (no CF statement exists in the package). Budget-vs-actual analysis intentionally excluded from this tab — a dedicated Budget section is planned. Distributor sell-through lives on the Distributors tab (different basis — never mix).